Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
